Everyone seems to be making the mistake of ergodicity: The rich of 2015 are NOT necessarily those of 2000. In the U.S. 85% of the rich were not so i… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Everyone seems to be making the mistake of ergodicity: The rich of 2015 are NOT necessarily those of 2000. In the U.S. 85% of the rich were not so in earlier periods. These static analyses by economists and psychologists are BS. I noted that only pple w get it.

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About Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1 January 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon) is an essayist, epistemologist, researcher, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.

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Also Known As

Alternative Names: Nassim Taleb
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Additional quotes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I discovered that I had been intuitively using the less-is-more idea as an aid in decision making (contrary to the method of putting a series of pros and cons side by side on a computer screen). For instance, if you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just don’t do it. It does not mean that one reason is better than two, just that by invoking more than one reason you are trying to convince yourself to do something. Obvious decisions (robust to error) require no more than a single reason. Likewise the French army had a heuristic to reject excuses for absenteeism for more than one reason, like death of grandmother, cold virus, and being bitten by a boar. If someone attacks a book or idea using more than one argument, you know it is not real: nobody says “he is a criminal, he killed many people, and he also has bad table manners and bad breath and is a very poor driver.

In an antique city-state, or a modern municipality, shame is the penalty for the violation of ethics — making things more symmetric. Banishment and exile, or, worse, ostracism were severe penalties — people did not move around voluntarily and considered uprooting a horrible calamity. In larger organisms like the mega holy nation-state, with a smaller role for face-to-face encounters, and social roots, shame ceases to fulfill its duty of disciplinarian.

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