The art of measuring, as precisely as possible, probabilities of things, with the goal that we would be able always to choose or follow in our judgments and actions that course, which will have been determined to be better, more satisfactory, safer or more advantageous.

The use of reason is to justify the obscure desires that move our conduct, impulses, passions, prejudices and follies, and also our fears.

I use the scale of preference. I live my life based on what is more important and that’s how I follow it.

Why are desire scales 1-10? They should be 1-12, like a clock, because I want her 1-12, I mean like all the time.

The theory of probability combines commonsense reasoning with calculation. It domesticates luck, making it subservient to reason.

[P]robability as a measurable degree of certainty; necessity and chance; moral versus mathematical expectation; a priori an a posteriori probability; expectation of winning when players are divided according to dexterity; regard of all available arguments, their valuation, and their calculable evaluation; law of large numbers...

Many modern philosophers claim that probability is relation between an hypothesis and the evidence for it.

Don’t mistake possibilities for probabilities. Anything is possible. It’s the probabilities that matter. Everything must be weighed in terms of its likelihood and prioritized.

What underlies our assignment of probabilities in the real world?

A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps.

Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

Previous to the time of Pascal, who would have thought of measuring doubt and belief? Who could have conceived that the investigation of petty games of chance would have led to the most sublime branch of mathematical science - the theory of probabilities?

The place of any good in this scale of values is determined ultimately by the strength of the subjective demand for it.

It is not merely a question of calculating with probabilities but also one of relating the ingredients of your probability statements to reality. You do not need to think only about p(E|K) but also about the precise nature of E and K.