Life is much, much easier when you treat all humans as flawed and imperfect, but flawed in quite different ways. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

people often confuse complex ideas that cannot be simplified into a media-friendly statement as symptomatic of a confused mind.

[T]here is a category of traders who have inverse rare events, for whom volatility is often the bearer of good news. Those traders lose money frequently, but in small amounts, and make money rarely, but in large amounts. ...crisis hunters. I am happy to be one of them.

Governments are wasting billions of dollars on attempting to predict events that are produced by interdependent systems and are therefore not statistically understandable at the individual level.