Unlike a well-defined, precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

When as****les call you "arrogant", you are on the right side of ethics.

Optimism, it is said, is predictive of success. ...It can also be predictive of failure. Optimistic people... take more risks as they are overconfident of the about the odds; those who win show up among the rich and famous, others fail and disappear from the analysis.

When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars.