If the Iliad survived, it is precisely because it is not summarizable. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Things always become obvious after the fact.

History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.

Consider a more extreme example than the casino experiment. Assume a collection of people play Russian roulette a single time for a million dollars — this is the central story in Fooled by Randomness. About five out of six will make money. If someone used a standard cost-benefit analysis, he would have claimed that one has an 83.33 percent chance of gains, for an “expected” average return per shot of $833,333. But if you keep playing Russian roulette, you will end up in the cemetery. Your expected return is … not computable.