Know how to rank your beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

(J)ust as we tend to underestimate the role of luck in life in general, we tend to overestimate it in games of chance.

In the days of Suetonius, 60% of prominent educators (grammarians) were slaves. Today the ratio is 97.1%, and growing.

A... vicious effect of... is that those that are good at predicting the past... think of themselves as good at predicting the future... [W]e live in a world where important events are not predictable...