A good predictor is someone who knows *what* to predict. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I noticed that very intelligent and informed persons were at no advantage over cabdrivers in their predictions, but there was a crucial difference. Cabdrivers did not believe that they understood as much as learned people - really, they were not the experts and they knew it. Nobody knew anything, but elite thinkers thought that they knew more than the rest because they were elite thinkers, and if you're a member of the elite, you automatically know more than the nonelite.

Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.

You remember emails you sent that were not answered better than emails that you did not answer.