The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1 January 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon) is an essayist, epistemologist, researcher, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.
Biography information from
Wikiquote·
Portrait adapted from
Wikimedia Commons, Sarah Josephine Taleb (CC BY)
Imagine taking a test knowing the answer. While we know that history flows forward, it is difficult to realize that we envision it backward. Why is it so? We will discuss the point in Chapter 11 but here is a possible explanation: Our minds are not quite designed to understand how the world works, but, rather, to get out of trouble rapidly and have progeny. If they were made for us to understand things, then we would have a machine in it that would run the past history as in a VCR, with a correct chronology, and it would slow us down so much that we would have trouble operating. Psychologists call this overestimation of what one knew at the time of the event due to subsequent information the hindsight bias, the “I knew it all along” effect.
Few understand that procrastination is our natural defense, letting things take care of themselves
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We humans are the victims of an asymmetry in the perception of random events. We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control, namely to randomness.
