There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no "trying to help". Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed.

The very idea of exercise is to gain from antifragility to workout stressors — as we saw, all kinds of exercise are just exploitations of convexity effects.

I reject a sole time series of the past as an indication of future performance; I need a lot more than data.