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When we respond without reasoning, we’re more likely to make mistakes that seem obvious in hindsight. In fact, when we respond emotionally, we often don’t even realize that we’re in a position that calls for thinking at all.

The core of Bayesian thinking (or Bayesian updating, as it can be called) is this: given that we have limited but useful information about the world, and are constantly encountering new information, we should probably take into account what we already know when we learn something new. As much of it as possible. Bayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions. Statisticians might call it a base rate, taking in outside information about past situations like the one you’re in.

The Five Whys is a method rooted in the behavior of children. Children instinctively think in first principles. Just like us, they want to understand what’s happening in the world. To do so, they intuitively break through the fog with a game some parents have come to dread, but which is exceptionally useful for identifying first principles: repeatedly asking “why?

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People search for competitive advantages while ignoring the one hiding in plain sight:

Doing what you said you'd do.

People are inconsistent. They don't follow through. They don't follow up...

This means the simple act of being reliable sets you apart.

It's not talent or genius or connections, it's the boring stuff. Reliability is rare.

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