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[Large language models] require enormous amounts of data to reach a level of intelligence that is not that great in the end. And they can't really reason. They can't plan anything other than things they’ve been trained on. So they're not a road towards what people call “AGI.”

Don't get fooled by people who claim to have a solution to Artificial General Intelligence, who claim to have AI systems that work "just like the human brain", or who claim to have figured out how the brain works (well, except if it's Geoff Hinton making the claim). Ask them what error rate they get on MNIST or ImageNet.

Many of the papers that make it passed the review process are [good but boring] papers that bring an improvement to a well-established technique... Truly innovative papers rarely make it, largely because reviewers are unlikely to understand the point or foresee the potential of it.

Every reasonable ML technique has some sort of mathematical guarantee. For example, neural nets have a finite VC dimension, hence they are consistent and have generalization bounds... every single bound is terrible and useless in practice. As long as your method minimizes some sort of objective function and has a finite capacity (or is properly regularized), you are on solid theoretical grounds.

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[Can a commercial entity] produce Wikipedia? No. Wikipedia is crowdsourced because it works. So it's going to be the same for AI systems, they're going to have to be trained, or at least fine-tuned, with the help of everyone around the world. And people will only do this if they can contribute to a widely-available open platform.

My problem with sticking too close to nature is that it's like "cargo-cult" science... I don't use neural nets because they look like the brain. I use them because they are a convenient way to construct parameterized non-linear functions with good properties. But I did get inspiration from the architecture of the visual cortex to build convolutional nets.

I try to stay away from all methods that require sampling. I must have an allergy of some sort. That said, I am neither Bayesian nor anti-Bayesian... I think Bayesian methods are really cool conceptually in some cases... but I really don't have much faith in things like non-parametric Bayesian methods...

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