There's literally no difference between a physician recognizing a disease from a "facial expression", and a little child pointing to something and sa… - Daniel Kahneman

This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.

And there is something else, which is very important, I think. Which is that almost all psychological hypotheses are true, that is, in the sense that, you know, directionally, if you have a hypothesis that A really causes B, that it's not true that A causes the opposite [of] B. Maybe A just has very little effect, but hypotheses are true mostly, except mostly they're very weak, they're much weaker than you think...

Life is often more complex than the stories we like to tell about it.