When you overfit decision quality to outcome quality, you risk repeating decision errors that, thanks to luck, preceded a good outcome. You may also … - Annie Duke

Experience is necessary for learning. But we process that experience in a biased way. This means that the very feedback you need to become a better decision-maker can interfere with your ability to learn good lessons from experience.

SIX STEPS TO BETTER DECISION-MAKING Step 1 — Identify the reasonable set of possible outcomes. Step 2 — Identify your preference using the payoff for each outcome — to what degree do you like or dislike each outcome, given your values? Step 3 — Estimate the likelihood of each outcome unfolding. Step 4 — Assess the relative likelihood of outcomes you like and dislike for the option under consideration. Step 5 — Repeat Steps 1–4 for other options under consideration. Step 6 — Compare the options to one another.

When someone asks you about a coin they flipped four times, there is a correct answer: "I'm not sure."