Annie Duke Quotes

Optimism makes you less likely to walk away while not actually increasing your chances of success. That means that being overly optimistic will make you stick to things longer that aren't worthwhile. Better to be well calibrated. Life's too short to spend your time on opportunities that are no longer worthwhile.

When it comes to quitting, the most painful thing to quit is who you are.

Being forced to quit forces you to start exploring new options and opportunities. But you should start exploring before you're forced to. Even after you have found a path that you want to stick to, keep doing some exploration. Things change, and whatever you are doing now may not be the best path for you to pursue in the future. Having more options gives you something to switch to when the time is right. Exploration helps you to diversify your portfolio of skills, interests, and opportunities. A diversified portfolio helps to protect you against uncertainty. Backup plans are good to have especially because some backup plans can turn out to be better than what we're already pursuing.

RESULTING A mental shortcut in which we use the quality of an outcome to figure out the quality of a decision.

As Nietzsche points out, regret can do nothing to change what has already happened. We just wallow in remorse about something over which we no longer have any control. But if regret happened before a decision instead of after, the experience of regret might get us to change a choice likely to result in a bad outcome.

Experience is necessary for learning. But we process that experience in a biased way. This means that the very feedback you need to become a better decision-maker can interfere with your ability to learn good lessons from experience.

Why might my belief not be true? What other evidence might be out there bearing on my belief? Are there similar areas I can look toward to gauge whether similar beliefs to mine are true? What sources of information could I have missed or minimized on the way to reaching my belief? What are the reasons someone else could have a different belief, what's their support, and why might they be right instead of me? What other perspectives are there as to why things turned out the way they did?

We process outcomes sequentially, treating each outcome as if it stands alone. We don't sit back and wait to update our beliefs until we have enough data to overcome the uncertain relationship between outcomes and decisions.

Fake news works because people who already hold beliefs consistent with the story generally won't question the evidence

The endowment effect is a cognitive bias where we value something we own more than we would if we didn't own it. We can be endowed to objects but also to our own ideas and beliefs. Endowment is an obstacle to quitting because when we irrationally value things we own, we miscalculate their expected value. We might think the company we started or the project we devised or the belief we have is worth more than it actually is. We prefer to stick with the status quo. We are more tolerant of bad outcomes that come from sticking with what we are already doing than bad outcomes that come from switching to something new. This phenomenon is part of omission-commission bias. When you say, "I'm just not ready to decide yet," what you are really saying is, "For now, I am choosing the status quo." Even in highly data-rich environments like professional sports, sunk cost, endowment, and status quo bias distort decision-making.

Incorporating uncertainty into the way we think about our beliefs comes with many benefits. By expressing our level of confidence in what we believe, we are shifting our approach to how we view the world. Acknowledging uncertainty is the first step in measuring and narrowing it. Incorporating uncertainty in the way we think about what we believe creates open-mindedness, moving us closer to a more objective stance toward information that disagrees with us.

If you feel like you've got a close call between quitting and persevering, it's likely that quitting is the better choice.

Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.

It's a shame the social contract for poker players is so different than for the rest of us in this regard because a lot of good can result from someone saying, "Wanna bet?" Offering a wager brings the risk out in the open, making explicit what is already implicit (and frequently overlooked). The more we recognize that we are betting on our beliefs (with our happiness, attention, health, money, time, or some other limited resource), the more we are likely to temper our statements, getting closer to the truth as we acknowledge the risk inherent in what we believe.

What does Conway do to counter these vehement arguments? Nothing. He agrees with them that they can make it work. He doesn't try to convince the founders that they're wrong. Instead, he asks them what success would look like over the next few months. And he asks them for specifics. That conversation allows him to sit down with the founder and set performance benchmarks that would signal that the company was heading in the right direction. Then, they agree when to revisit those benchmarks and, if the venture is falling short, to have a serious discussion about shutting it down. This probably sounds a lot like Conway is using kill criteria, and that's because he is.