Fake news works because people who already hold beliefs consistent with the story generally won't question the evidence - Annie Duke

What does Conway do to counter these vehement arguments? Nothing. He agrees with them that they can make it work. He doesn't try to convince the founders that they're wrong. Instead, he asks them what success would look like over the next few months. And he asks them for specifics. That conversation allows him to sit down with the founder and set performance benchmarks that would signal that the company was heading in the right direction. Then, they agree when to revisit those benchmarks and, if the venture is falling short, to have a serious discussion about shutting it down. This probably sounds a lot like Conway is using kill criteria, and that's because he is.

The quality of the outcome casts a shadow over our ability to see the quality of the decision.

Of course, the world is uncertain and the world does change. That means that our goals ought to change in response. But the goals we set are remarkably unresponsive to new information.