It's a shame the social contract for poker players is so different than for the rest of us in this regard because a lot of good can result from someo… - Annie Duke

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It's a shame the social contract for poker players is so different than for the rest of us in this regard because a lot of good can result from someone saying, "Wanna bet?" Offering a wager brings the risk out in the open, making explicit what is already implicit (and frequently overlooked). The more we recognize that we are betting on our beliefs (with our happiness, attention, health, money, time, or some other limited resource), the more we are likely to temper our statements, getting closer to the truth as we acknowledge the risk inherent in what we believe.

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Birth Name: Anne LaBarr Lederer
Alternative Names: Anne LaBarr Duke Annie Lederer Anne Lederer
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The lesson here is that we shouldn't wait to be forced to find a Plan B. We should always be doing some exploration, especially because sometimes Plan B can turn out to be better than the thing you're already pursuing.

For reasons that are going to become clear, a good decision tool seeks to reduce the role of cognitive bias (such as overconfidence, hindsight bias, or confirmation bias) and a pros and cons list tends to amplify the role of bias.

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