Jumping to conclusions is a safer sport in the world of our imagination than it is in reality. - Daniel Kahneman

Experts who acknowledge the full extent of their ignorance may expect to be replaced by more confident competitors, who are better able to gain the trust of clients. An unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is a cornerstone of rationality — but it is not what people and organizations want.

...the characters are useful because of some quirks of our minds, yours and mine. A sentence is understood more easily if it describes what an agent (system 2) does than if it describes what something is, what properties it has.

He's taking an inside view. He should forget about his own case and look for what happened in other cases.