First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact (unlike the bird). Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
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About
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1 January 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon) is an essayist, epistemologist, researcher, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.
Biography information from
Wikiquote·
Portrait adapted from
Wikimedia Commons, Sarah Josephine Taleb (CC BY)
The Arabs have an expression for trenchant prose: no skill to understand it, mastery to write it.
Rich people aren't necessarily incorruptible; but they can be much, much more expensive to bribe.
Everyone seems to be making the mistake of ergodicity: The rich of 2015 are NOT necessarily those of 2000. In the U.S. 85% of the rich were not so in earlier periods. These static analyses by economists and psychologists are BS. I noted that only pple w get it.
