First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact (unlike the bird). Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.