How Musk chooses which streams to explore depends on the relationship between those probabilities and the importance of his objective. "Even if the probability for success is fairly low, if the objective is really important, it's still worth doing. Conversely, if the objective is less important, then the probability needs to be much greater. How I decide which projects to take on depends on probability multiplied by the importance of the objective.
Reference Quote
Similar Quotes
Quote search results. More quotes will automatically load as you scroll down, or you can use the load more buttons.
To adapt to the reality of scale, meanwhile, Musk employs a number of other strategies. We'll start with first principles, which is a lesson he borrowed from physics. "Physics training is a good framework for reasoning," explains Musk. "It forces you to boil things down to their most fundamental truths and then connect those truths in a way that lets you understand reality. This gives you a way to attack the counterintuitive, a way of figuring out things that aren't obvious. When you're trying to create a new product or service, I think it's critical to use this framework for reasoning. It takes a lot of mental energy, but it's still the right way to do it."
Limited Time Offer
Premium members can get their quote collection automatically imported into their Quotewise collections.
He went to the Palo Alto public library to read about rocket engineering and started calling experts, asking to borrow their old engine manuals. At a gathering of PayPal alumni in Las Vegas, he sat in a cabana by the pool reading a tattered manual for a Russian rocket engine. When one of the alums, Mark Woolway, asked him what he planned to do next, Musk answered, “I’m going to colonize Mars. My mission in life is to make mankind a multiplanetary civilization.” Woolway’s reaction was unsurprising. “Dude, you’re bananas.
Many if not most of his decisions are thrust upon the president, out of the blue, by events beyond his control: oil spills, financial panics, pandemics, earthquakes, fires, coups, invasions, underwear bombers, movie-theater shooters, and on and on and on. They don’t order themselves neatly for his consideration but come in waves, jumbled on top of each other. “Nothing comes to my desk that is perfectly solvable,” Obama said at one point. “Otherwise, someone else would have solved it. So you wind up dealing with probabilities. Any given decision you make you’ll wind up with a 30 to 40 percent chance that it isn’t going to work. You have to own that and feel comfortable with the way you made the decision. You can’t be paralyzed by the fact that it might not work out.” On top of all of this, after you have made your decision, you need to feign total certainty about it. People being led do not want to think probabilistically.
Loading more quotes...
Loading...