And there is something else, which is very important, I think. Which is that almost all psychological hypotheses are true, that is, in the sense that… - Daniel Kahneman

When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives too easily fall victim to the planning fallacy. In its grip, they make decisions based on delusional optimism rather than on a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities. They overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. They spin scenarios of success while overlooking the potential for mistakes and miscalculations. As a result, they pursue initiatives that are unlikely to come in on budget or on time or to deliver the expected returns — or even to be completed. In this view, people often (but not always) take on risky projects because they are overly optimistic about the odds they face. I will return to this idea several times in this book — it probably contributes to an explanation of why people litigate, why they start wars, and why they open small businesses.

He's taking an inside view. He should forget about his own case and look for what happened in other cases.

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.