If you look at history, it seems that most people who got rich by creating wealth did it by developing new technology. You just can’t fry eggs or cut… - Paul Graham

Hypothesis: One way to tell whether someone's a "natural" at something is when they do it with style even when they're first learning and don't know much yet.

So the optimal plan, if you can manage it, is to have a few trusted friends you can speak openly to. This is not just a way to develop ideas; it’s also a good rule of thumb for choosing friends. The people you can say heretical things to without getting jumped on are also the most interesting to know.

It's a dangerous skill to be good at convincing yourself that you don't want things you worry you might not get. Useful in some areas perhaps, but disastrous in others.