must avoid losing before they can win. - Shane Parrish

We convince ourselves that low-chance events are zero-chance events and think only of best-case outcomes.

Hanlon’s Razor, when practiced diligently as a counter to confirmation bias, empowers us, and gives us far more realistic and effective options for remedying bad situations. When we assume someone is out to get us, our very natural instinct is to take actions to defend ourselves. It’s harder to take advantage of, or even see, opportunities while in this defensive mode because our priority is saving ourselves — which tends to reduce our vision to dealing with the perceived threat instead of examining the bigger picture.

When understanding is separated from reality, we lose our powers. Understanding must constantly be tested against reality and updated accordingly.