Prediction: software development will closely resemble the evolution of self-driving cars. - Considered for many years intractable, now run of the … - Guillermo Rauch

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Prediction: software development will closely resemble the evolution of self-driving cars.

- Considered for many years intractable, now run of the mill for a large subset of rides (robotaxi), all mobility within sight.

- The key metric to watch is disengagement rate (i.e.: how frequently the human operator needs total take over coding :: driving).

- Occasional human takeover and steering still needed (remote takeover) to get the program “unstuck” or figure out dilemmas.

- Success is predicated on the successful interoperability with the existing environment and tools (existing programming languages, runtimes, frameworks :: streets, signs, pedestrians), rather than resetting the landscape.