The world in our heads is not a precise replica of reality; our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotio… - Daniel Kahneman

People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.

The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

The expectation of intelligent gossip is a powerful motive for serious self-criticism, more powerful than New Year resolutions to improve one's decision making at work and at home.