Wright's Law > Moore's Law. Stop making time-based predictions. Start making unit-based ones. For every cumulative doubling in production, costs fall… - Peter Diamandis

The first real threat it faced, today’s ridesharing model, only showed up in the last decade. But that ridesharing model won’t even get ten years to dominate. Already, it’s on the brink of autonomous car displacement, which is on the brink of flying car disruption, which is on the brink of Hyperloop and rockets-to-anywhere decimation. Plus, avatars. The most important part: All of this change will happen over the next ten years.

We were at 0G in 1940, when the first telephone networks began to roll out. This was the deceptive phase. It took forty years to crawl our way to 1G, which showed up via the first mobile phones in the 1980s, marking the transition from deceptive to disruptive. By the 90s, around the time the internet emerged, 2G came along for the ride. But the ride didn't last long. A decade later, 3G ushered in a new era of acceleration as bandwidth costs began to plummet — at a staggeringly consistent 35 percent per year. Smartphones, mobile banking, and e-commerce unleashed 4G networks in 2010. But starting in 2019, 5G will begin to hotwire the whole deal, delivering speeds a hundred times faster at near-zero prices.

But if you sign up for moonshot thinking, if you sign up to make something 10x better, there is no chance of doing that with existing assumptions.