Luck is what intervenes between your decision (which has a range of possible outcomes) and the outcome that you actually get. Because any decision de… - Annie Duke

Self-serving bias has immediate and obvious consequences for our ability to learn from experience.

What if we shifted our definition of "I don't know" from the negative frame ("I have no idea" or "I know nothing about that," which feels like we lack competence or confidence) to a more neutral frame? What if we thought about it as recognizing that, although we might know something about the chances of some event occurring, we are still not sure how things will turn out in any given instance? That is just the truth. If we accept that, "I'm not sure" might not feel so bad. What good poker players and good decision-makers have in common is their comfort with the world being an uncertain and unpredictable place.

Dan Kahan's work on motivated reasoning also indicates that smart people are not better equipped to combat bias — and may even be more susceptible.