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" "To take on the bold, we need this third drive. Leveraging exponential technology to tackle big goals and using rapid iteration and fast feedback to accelerate progress toward those goals is about innovation at warp speed. But if entrepreneurs can’t upgrade their psychology to keep pace with this technology, then they have little chance of winning this race.
Peter H. Diamandis (born May 20, 1961) is an American engineer, physician, and entrepreneur. He is best known as the founder and chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, and the cofounder and executive chairman of Singularity University. He is also cofounder and former CEO of the Zero Gravity Corporation, cofounder and vice chairman of Space Adventures Ltd., founder and chairman of the Rocket Racing League, cofounder of the International Space University, cofounder of Planetary Resources, cofounder of Celularity, founder of Students for the Exploration and Development of Space, and vice chairman and cofounder of Human Longevity, Inc.
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How Musk chooses which streams to explore depends on the relationship between those probabilities and the importance of his objective. "Even if the probability for success is fairly low, if the objective is really important, it's still worth doing. Conversely, if the objective is less important, then the probability needs to be much greater. How I decide which projects to take on depends on probability multiplied by the importance of the objective.