The fragility of the world is a result of its nature as thought. Both land and human being participate in the same kind of being, for both are thoughts in the mind of Grandmother Spider.

In recent years, regional and international environments have undergone rapid and complex challenges. Multifaceted security challenges have occurred in many parts of the world such as terrorism and extremism, natural disasters, climate change, migration crisis, trafficking in persons, territorial disputes and armed conflicts, among others. At the same time, although the global economy has gradually recovered, growth remains slow and fragile. Against this backdrop, there is a need for us to closely follow these developments and continue to enhance ASEAN cooperation and collaboration with the international community, including ASEAN's Dialogue Partners and other external parties in order to be able to respond to and address the said challenges in a timely manner.

So the future depends not only on what we do but on what other powers do. Will they join in the nuclear arms race or save their resources for later, more renumerative uses? Will they increase their productivity while we succumb to inflation and its social and economic consequences? Will they live in harmony at home while we remain riven by factionalism and terrorized by crime? Most important of all, will they choose their goals wisely and pursue them relentlessly while we flounder in aimlessness or exhaust ourselves in internecine struggles? These matters are quite as important as the decline of absolute American power in determining the equilibrium of international relations in the 1970s. One thing is sure: the international challenge tends to merge more and more with the domestic challenge until the two become virtually indistinguishable. The threats from both sources are directed at the same sources of national power which provide strength both for our national security and for our domestic welfare. It is clear, I believe, that we cannot overcome abroad and fail at home, or succeed at home and succumb abroad. To progress toward the goals of our security and welfare we must advance concurrently on both foreign and domestic fronts by means of integrated national power responsive to a unified national will.

Fragility is the quality of things that are vulnerable to volatility.

The most obvious way to take international considerations into account is by treating risks emanating from abroad as an important input when setting domestic macroprudential policy.

But fragility and antifragility are part of the current property of an object, a coffee table, a company, an industry, a country, a political system. We can detect fragility, see it, even in many cases measure it, or at least measure comparative fragility with a small error while comparisons of risk have been (so far) unreliable.

includes such things as the current and prospective regulatory climate; the state of labor, supplier, and customer relations; the potential impact of changes in technology; competitive strengths and vulnerabilities; pricing power; scalability; environmental issues; and, notably, the presence of hidden exposures.

As a small nation, we must take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. But we are far from powerless on the international stage by acting together with like-minded partners, both big and small. We remain vigilant and proactive in defending ourselves against external threats. We will continue to build a network of friends to advance our shared interests. We will strive to preserve our sovereignty and the right to determine our own future, as we have done since independence.

In a globalized world, security can no longer be thought of as a zero-sum game involving states alone. Global security, instead, has five dimensions that include human, environmental, national, transnational, and transcultural security, and, therefore, global security and the security of any state or culture cannot be achieved without good governance at all levels that guarantees security through justice for all individuals, states, and cultures.

The external environment is indeed a big concern for us because even as we go about leadership transition and entering our next phase of development, we are doing so at a time when the world is changing, and it is going to be a new global order, which is likely to be very messy and unpredictable, because the world is in flux. The unipolar moment for America has ended. Everybody talks about going into a multipolar world but it is not quite at a stable equilibrium yet. And this period of transition will be very messy, a lot will be marked by nationalism, protectionism, excessive nationalism – nationalism itself is not a bad thing – but excessive nationalism, very aggressive nationalism, protectionism, rivalry between the major powers. The pattern of globalisation that we have benefited from in the last 30 years will also be very different.

...Refugee crises or population displacement, and radicalization of people angry with their own government or willing to take action against countries that they regard as the big polluters. Scarce resources leading to political violence, terrorism — that’s the kind of secondary threat progression that the U.S. intelligence community will be looking at.

Since the inception of the new century, international situations have undergone complex and profound changes. Against the background of the in-depth development of economic globalization, interdependence among countries is continuously deepening. To peruse peace, promote cooperation and seek development has become the theme of the current era. However, our world is far from peaceful, and destabilizing and unpredictable factors are obviously growing. Blood-shed and clashes resulting from ethnic, religious, territorial issues and other traditional security factors have not become fewer and non-traditional threats to security represented by transnational crimes, epidemic diseases, terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction are increasing day by day. Mankind is facing an unprecedented severe challenge.

shortfalls are inevitable given factors such as... a nascent democratic culture and an increasingly charged political and security environment.

[G]rowing socio-political instability results from multiple interacting factors: economic, political, and cultural.