Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Quotes

"We need to learn how to manage ‘non-linear feedback loops’, ‘quantum jumps’, and the unpredictable consequences any event can bring about".

"In public policy, dependencies and unintended consequences matter. For example, ‘climate change’ and ‘population aging’ are key drivers of migration and cannot be ignored when designing immigration policies. Also, ‘deforestation’ not only leads to ‘global warming’, but also drives wild animals closer to humans - increasing the likelihood of viral infections, via ‘cross-species leaps’. As a result, most decisions cannot be taken in isolation: solving problems in one place is likely to create new ones, elsewhere. Also, well-intentioned policy choices can often provide perverse incentives - and obtain the opposite of their stated objectives. The phenomenon is known as the “cobra effect”: in India, during British rule, the authorities’ bounty on dead cobras resulted in a larger cobra population. In other words, policy making: 1) relies on a complex, interrelated context; and 2) can lead to unpredictable, non-linear outcomes".

"Largely unnoticed, megatrends transform the way we live and work. Preoccupied by our daily worries, we tend to overlook the irreversible forces that shape our life. In the past, the printing-press and the telephone forever changed human communication. Combustion and electricity revolutionized energy management. Going forward, the unfolding of similar ‘transformative, disruptive shifts’ will reshape society, business and the global economy".

"The question “state or markets?” is poorly posed. The dichotomy between “intervention - state - planning - equity” and “laissez faire - private sector - market - efficiency” stems from inappropriate consequential reasoning: the state can be inequitable and the market inefficient. Debates about primacy should end: state and market are complementary - not substitutes. Whenever governments and markets have worked well together, the results have been spectacular: ‘moon landing’ is the most quoted, quintessential example".

"Tackling ‘population aging’ - especially in high-income countries, where the median age is above 40 - requires: 1) acknowledging that most pension systems are financially unsustainable; and 2) reducing the resources allocated to the most sizeable share of the electorate - the elderly".

"By nature, ‘complex systems’ grow or decay at exponential rates. As suggested by the butterfly-effect in chaos theory, a negligible change in an ‘original state’ can lead to a radically different ‘resulting state’. In other words, a minor event might have large, unpredictable effects - depending on its: a) position in network (i.e.: initial conditions); b) degree of connectivity (i.e.: ease of interaction); and c) size of the impact".

"The state must set the framework for the markets to function (...) but in the long run, innovation needs a competitive private sector".

"Thinking about the future gives vertigo. It takes courage to look ahead. The ancient Greeks - when they sought to know - consulted the oracle at Delphi. Religion and magic help manage anxiety, but a dispassionate analysis of data and probabilities may actually provide useful guidance".

"From Athens’ ‘Thirty Tyrants’ to the rise of Hitler, democracy always failed “from inside”. The shift towards authoritarianism was favored by: 1) rapidly changing contexts; 2) inept rulers; and 3) weak institutions".

"Enlightened, quantum policymaking has an important role to play. Yet, ‘classical physics’ still shapes our way of learning. Cause-effect, linear thinking should be abandoned. To better understand our complex world, we must say “Bye” to Newton".

"Almost as if it were a new religion, we need to start rewarding those who create added value and take up the responsibilities required by their role in the community". Original quote: "Quasi fosse una nuova religione, bisogna iniziare a premiare chi crea valore aggiunto, assumendosi le responsabilità richieste dal proprio ruolo nella collettività".

"(...) throughout the Peninsula, informal and personal social ties are more important than formal and impersonal ones. When the community (Gemeinschaft, in German) counts more than society (Gesellschaft), family relationships - making up for the absence of the State - prevail over collective responsibilities, weakening civil society". Original quote: "(...) lungo tutta la Penisola, i legami sociali informali e personali sono più importanti di quelli formali e impersonali. Quando la comunità (Gemeinschaft, in tedesco) conta più della società (Gesellschaft), le relazioni familistiche – supplendo all’assenza dello Stato – prevalgono sulle responsabilità collettive, indebolendo la società civile".

"Every day, 1) ‘simple systems’ become complex: for example, a village becomes part of a city; and 2) ‘complex systems’ become more complex: for instance, financial markets embrace machine learning. Often, an increase in complexity leads to unintended consequences".

"Future shocks could exceed the ‘ability to respond’ of governments, businesses and citizens".

"The future is not a straight-line-projection of the past. Yet, most people - even scientists - think in linear, cause-effect patterns. The real world works differently: events follow discontinuous random walks, not predictable trends. At best, we can only assess the ‘likelihood of forthcoming events’. A rule-based approach is often misleading; to forecast future developments, we need probabilistic - rather than deterministic – thinking".