Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Quotes

"Thinking about the future gives vertigo. It takes courage to look ahead. The ancient Greeks - when they sought to know - consulted the oracle at Delphi. Religion and magic help manage anxiety, but a dispassionate analysis of data and probabilities may actually provide useful guidance".

"When designed and implemented correctly, ‘conditional financing’ can: 1) steer resources towards the strategic objectives; 2) avoid speculative capture, by ensuring the productive use of public resources; and 3) push the private sector towards inclusive, sustainable growth".

"Every day, 1) ‘simple systems’ become complex: for example, a village becomes part of a city; and 2) ‘complex systems’ become more complex: for instance, financial markets embrace machine learning. Often, an increase in complexity leads to unintended consequences".

"In an era of complexity, quantum thinking is needed – particularly in central banking".

"Tackling ‘population aging’ - especially in high-income countries, where the median age is above 40 - requires: 1) acknowledging that most pension systems are financially unsustainable; and 2) reducing the resources allocated to the most sizeable share of the electorate - the elderly".

"We need to learn how to manage ‘non-linear feedback loops’, ‘quantum jumps’, and the unpredictable consequences any event can bring about".

"‘Greening the economy’ is likely to be as challenging: every year governments across the world subsidize fossil-fuels (coal, oil, gas) for an amount equivalent to Japan’s GDP, produce electricity by burning them, and authorize the chopping to ‘non-forest use’ of an area the size of Belgium".

"The future is not a straight-line-projection of the past. Yet, most people - even scientists - think in linear, cause-effect patterns. The real world works differently: events follow discontinuous random walks, not predictable trends. At best, we can only assess the ‘likelihood of forthcoming events’. A rule-based approach is often misleading; to forecast future developments, we need probabilistic - rather than deterministic – thinking".

"[In Italy,] continuing to do 'what has always been done' is not convenient: living on rents and clinging to the past would equate to a slow suicide, because in the meanwhile risks would rise and the economy would get exposed to potential adverse shocks. If not challenged, the “I hope I get through” mentality will lead to shipwreck or irrelevance – which is the same". Original quote: "[In Italia,] continuare a fare ‘ciò che si è sempre fatto’ non conviene; vivere di rendita, aggrappati al passato, sarebbe un lento suicidio, perché nel frattempo i rischi aumentano e l’economia viene esposta a potenziali shock avversi. Se elevata a sistema, la mentalità dell’“io speriamo che me la cavo” porterà al naufragio o all’irrilevanza – che è lo stesso".