There are many reasons why wrapping our arms around uncertainty and giving it a big hug will help us become better decision-makers. Here are two of t… - Annie Duke

We are much more bothered by the downside potential of changing course than we are by the downside potential of staying on the path we're already on.

If you're like most people, you were pretty surprised by these results. Most of us aren't aware of the wide range of what these words mean to different people. We assume that when we use a term, other people use it in the same way we do and mean the same thing we do.

The verdict appears to be a consequence of hindsight bias — the human tendency to believe that whatever happened was bound to happen, and that everyone must have known it. If [the foreman] believed that an explosion was imminent, then he is a monster; but of that there is no evidence. Hindsight bias is not enough to support a verdict.