If you're like most people, you were pretty surprised by these results. Most of us aren't aware of the wide range of what these words mean to differe… - Annie Duke

The decision you make determines which set of outcomes are possible and how likely each of those outcomes is. But it doesn't determine which of that set of outcomes will actually happen.

At the moment that quitting becomes the objectively best choice, in practice things generally won't look particularly grim, even though the present does contain clues that can help you figure out how the future might unfold. The problem is, perhaps because of our aversion to quitting, we tend to rationalize away the clues contained in the present that would allow us to see how bad things really are.

It's not just that we need to set more flexible goals. We ourselves also need to be more flexible in the way we evaluate success and failure.