We are much more bothered by the downside potential of changing course than we are by the downside potential of staying on the path we're already on. - Annie Duke

To figure out whether a decision is good or bad, you need to know not just the things that might reasonably happen and what could be gained or lost, but also the likelihood of each possibility unfolding. That means, to become a better decision-maker, you need to be willing to estimate those probabilities.

A common, simple way to develop kill criteria is with "states and dates:" "If by (date), I have/haven't (reached a particular state), I'll quit."

In general, when we quit, we fear two things: that we've failed and that we've wasted our time, effort, or money. Waste is a forward-looking problem, not a backward-looking one.