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" "If you want to pick a role model for designing a group's practical rules of engagement, you can't do better than Merton. To start, he coined the phrase "role model," along with "self-fulfilling prophecy," "reference group," "unintended consequences," and "focus group." He founded the science of sociology and was the first sociologist awarded the National Medal of Science.
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SIX STEPS TO BETTER DECISION-MAKING Step 1 — Identify the reasonable set of possible outcomes. Step 2 — Identify your preference using the payoff for each outcome — to what degree do you like or dislike each outcome, given your values? Step 3 — Estimate the likelihood of each outcome unfolding. Step 4 — Assess the relative likelihood of outcomes you like and dislike for the option under consideration. Step 5 — Repeat Steps 1–4 for other options under consideration. Step 6 — Compare the options to one another.