Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to und… - Annie Duke

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Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future. The implications of treating decisions as bets made it possible for me to find learning opportunities in uncertain environments. Treating decisions as bets, I discovered, helped me avoid common decision traps, learn from results in a more rational way, and keep emotions out of the process as much as possible.

Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · February 6, 2018 Verified in 1 source Sign up to see the complete provenance

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Birth Name: Anne LaBarr Lederer

Alternative Names: Anne LaBarr Duke • Annie Lederer • Anne Lederer

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Shane Parrish Ray Dalio Daniel Kahneman Adam Grant Malcolm Gladwell

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The way we process new information is driven by the beliefs we hold, strengthening them.

When you overfit decision quality to outcome quality, you risk repeating decision errors that, thanks to luck, preceded a good outcome. You may also avoid repeating good decisions that, because of luck, didn't work out.

But for so many of us, that fear of falling short makes us not want to start. As Richard Thaler quipped, "If a gold medal in the Olympics is the only grade that passes, you do not want to ever take your first gymnastics class."

Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future. The implications of tr… - Annie Duke

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