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Some emerging markets will check all the boxes — strong population growth, growing middle class, verge of investment grade, great leadership, and hunger for capital — and then be missing the one ingredient that enables you to monetize your investment: scale. Without scale, you don’t have liquidity. You have no optionality. In essence, you’re stuck. Africa is a great example. I think many countries, such as Botswana, have potential, but the upper and middle classes are too small for me to get involved. Chile is another example. It has the institutions and leadership, but only 17 million people — no scale.

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Some emerging markets will check all the boxes — strong population growth, growing middle class, verge of investment grade, great leadership, and hunger for capital — and then be missing the one ingredient that enables you to monetize your investment: scale. Without scale, you don’t have liquidity. You have no optionality. In essence, you’re stuck.

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The lackluster nature of most multinational corporations emerging market strategies over the past decade does not change the magnitude of the opportunity. The real source of market promise is not the wealthy few in the developing world, or even the emerging middle-income consumers: It is the billions of aspiring poor who are joining the market economy for the first time.

It also opened up new challenges. When you invest in emerging markets, you’re trading the rule of law for growth. If you think you can count on receiving justice in a foreign courtroom, you should think again. So, the first question is always “Who’s your partner?” By that I mean “Who is going to watch your interests on the ground every day?

In emerging markets, a big clue to national stability is whether a country is on the verge of investment-grade rating. Early on, I came to the conclusion there’s no other time in the life of any country when it’s more disciplined and more transparent than when it’s a year or two away from reaching investment-grade status.

What deters people from investing in most countries is conflict, corruption, and a lack of skills or infrastructure. And those countries that are able to address those problems have rule of law and eliminate corruption. Make sure that you are investing in the education of your people and it’s a continuous education; it doesn’t just stop at the lower grades, but you give people constant opportunities to upgrade their skills. You have a decent infrastructure -- you’re going to be able to succeed. That’s the recipe, the formula for a 21st-century economy.

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The optimal scale of the economy is smaller, the greater (a) the degree of complementarity between natural and man-made capital; (b) our desire for direct experience of nature; and (c) our estimate of both the intrinsic and instrumental value of other species. The smaller the optimal scale of the economy, the sooner its physical growth becomes uneconomic.

I also think we need to be more ambitious. You see projects and they are too timid, too small. International investors and financiers want scale. So we also help see the bigger picture and help ensure that these projects are appealing and will meet the requirements and benchmarks that we know investors will request.

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Each company, ruggedly individualistic, does its best to expand efficiently and improve its own profitability. However, our pursuit of our individual businesses, which often involves transferring manufacturing and a great deal of engineering out of the country, has hindered our ability to bring innovations to scale at home. Without scaling, we don't just lose jobs—we lose our hold on new technologies. Losing the ability to scale will ultimately damage our capacity to innovate.

Our country is thousands of kilometers long with many areas needing investments. We expect many investors, not only large investors, but also small investors with high technology, to expand investments in those areas.

The perfect target market for a startup is a small group of particular people concentrated together and served by few or no competitors. Any big market is a bad choice, and a big market already served by competing companies is even worse. This is why it’s always a red flag when entrepreneurs talk about getting 1% of a $100 billion market. In practice, a large market will either lack a good starting point or it will be open to competition, so it’s hard to ever reach that 1%. And even if you do succeed in gaining a small foothold, you’ll have to be satisfied with keeping the lights on: cutthroat competition means your profits will be zero.

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