The verdict appears to be a consequence of hindsight bias — the human tendency to believe that whatever happened was bound to happen, and that everyo… - Annie Duke

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The verdict appears to be a consequence of hindsight bias — the human tendency to believe that whatever happened was bound to happen, and that everyone must have known it. If [the foreman] believed that an explosion was imminent, then he is a monster; but of that there is no evidence. Hindsight bias is not enough to support a verdict.

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Birth Name: Anne LaBarr Lederer
Alternative Names: Anne LaBarr Duke • Annie Lederer • Anne Lederer
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We process outcomes sequentially, treating each outcome as if it stands alone. We don't sit back and wait to update our beliefs until we have enough data to overcome the uncertain relationship between outcomes and decisions.
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Forcing ourselves to express how sure we are of our beliefs brings to plain sight the probabilistic nature of those beliefs, that what we believe is almost never 100% or 0% accurate but, rather, somewhere in between.
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The lesson here is that we shouldn't wait to be forced to find a Plan B. We should always be doing some exploration, especially because sometimes Plan B can turn out to be better than the thing you're already pursuing.
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