I knew what the Equity Office portfolio was worth. And I knew we were undervalued by Wall Street. Every quarter, the management team would do an in-depth analysis of every asset in the portfolio to develop a real-time valuation. The most reliable measure of our buildings’ value remained — and had always been, in my opinion — replacement cost. Replacement cost mattered more to me than rents or comparable prices or vacancies or economic growth or stock price. This was because replacement cost determined the price of future competition.
Once again, I listened as people told me I was nuts. Emerging markets were largely considered untouchable by foreign investors at the time. They were still under the shadow of loan defaults from the 1980s, and Mexico’s recent Tequila Crisis (the devaluation of the peso) had triggered widespread currency devaluation across Latin America. To top it off, many emerging market countries were reeling from the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and Russia’s default in 1998. Emerging markets at the time were not for the faint of heart. For me, of course, that presented an environment with no competition for assets.
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This bit of hyperbole revealed a very important fact: At its heart, grave dancing was an opportunity to resurrect those assets deserving of a fresh start. It was a bet on my ability to affect a turnaround. And the low entry price paid for the risk I was taking to do it. Grave dancing involves confidence, optimism, conviction, and no small amount of courage. All the opportunity in the world means nothing if you don’t actually pull the trigger.
Some emerging markets will check all the boxes — strong population growth, growing middle class, verge of investment grade, great leadership, and hunger for capital — and then be missing the one ingredient that enables you to monetize your investment: scale. Without scale, you don’t have liquidity. You have no optionality. In essence, you’re stuck.
Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets, in any industry, new life. And often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them — the last chance for a resurrection. I’m not claiming to be altruistic — just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.
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In 2006, China was suffering from a dearth of available investment capital. Locals were waving in U.S. and other foreign investors with open arms. As you know by now, I love a market or deal that is starved for investors. It creates an environment where sellers and partners are bending over backward for you. I discovered that advantage over and over in my career, and I’m always on the lookout for that dynamic.
I looked at each property and figured out how much debt service it could handle based on its existing cash flow. I’d restructure the debt at a lower interest rate and put $1 down on the property along with a limited cash-flow guarantee to ensure the institution would not go into default while waiting for the market to recover.
The Jacor story was all about seeing micro opportunities in macro events. In this case, the macro event was legislation similar to the impact of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 on NOLs. But I find implications for opportunity everywhere — in world events, economic news, and conversations. I’ve always been on the lookout for big-picture influencers and anomalies that will direct the course of industries and companies.
I was the pitchman. I went to each of the houses, sat on a lot of couches, and flipped through dozens of family photo albums as I explained to the homeowners that we were going to build student housing and they could either stay and put up with loud music at night and beer cans on the lawn, or they could move to the other side of Ann Arbor. It worked. I kept buying houses and eventually acquired one full block of land. They were all cash deals, $1,000 each to tie up the properties with deferred closings requiring around $20,000.