Top 15 David Franklin Quotes

It sounds like a lot of you are not too surprised if this 30% chance materialises,” Dan replies. “You take precautions against it. The rain, if it comes, doesn’t shock you, and you have your umbrella. So why was everyone so shocked about Trump?

Dan asks the class whether any of them has ever checked the weather on their phone to see if it’s likely to rain while they’re outside. Everyone has. “What do you do if you see there’s a 30% chance of rain?” “Take an umbrella”, several students all say at once.

So Trump was 29% likely to win. What does 29% mean?” he asks. This is an odd question for many: they’re doing a Master’s degree at Harvard, and they’re being asked what a percentage means. The question is aiming at the gut reaction of the brain to the number. Inevitably, students think it might be a trick question. Dan waits a while, and when no-one raises their hands, he breaks away from the example to tell a story: “You know, when I first started teaching, I was terrified of silence. I thought, ‘oh my god, I’ve got to do something, they’re not saying anything’.” The class laughs: he has eased the tension created by the silence. “The more I taught, the more I realised that silences are important in a class – they give time for people to think. These days, I’m not afraid of silence at all.” After a few seconds, a woman puts up her hand. “Well, obviously, I knew that it meant there was some chance that he would win. But it was still a shock that the 29% happened.

The brain has conflicting goals: to provide you with information, and to reduce your anxiety about the worrying outcome. If you wanted Clinton to win in 2016, your brain achieved both goals by accepting the 30% figure but telling you it would not happen.

An American student, well-versed in U.S. politics, puts his hand up. He says he had been following Nate Silver’s ‘Five Thirty-Eight’ website, which had said that Trump only had about a 30% chance of winning the election.

The students are asked to rate their level of surprise on a five-point scale from ‘not surprised at all’ to ‘beyond shock’. Many describe feelings of total shock and numbness: a large majority indicate some level of surprise. He asks them: “Why were you surprised?

For these ‘future leaders’ in the classroom, it is more important to understand the psychology of certainty. Often, we believe what we want to believe. Dan starts with an example of the 2016 Presidential Election in the United States. He asks the question: “Relative to what you expected to happen, how surprised were you when you learned that Trump had won the election?

Einstein is supposed to have remarked that “education is what remains when one has forgotten everything they learned at school”.

The Google team at Project Aristotle concluded that there were five main traits of a successful team. Psychological safety was the most important, and their research suggested that it underpinned the other four[xxvi]. The five traits were as follows: (1) Psychological safety: team members feel safe to take risks and be vulnerable in front of each other. (2) Dependability: team members get things done on time, and meet Google’s high bar for excellence. (3) Structure and clarity: team members have clear roles, plans, and goals. (4) Meaning: work is personally important to team members. (5) Impact: team members think their work matters and creates change.

The first key idea is that when you have a challenge for which measuring progress is hard, the ability to adapt is just as important as the ability to plan.

But few of us really stop to ask ourselves what new information might change our minds, especially on questions of politics and identity. We fall into the trap of confirmation bias, in which rather than updating our prior beliefs, we mould new information into a form that will confirm them.

The great economist John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have said “when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

There is also something powerful in the concept of an ‘airport idea’. On the surface, it links with Dan’s plea for what students should do if they meet him in an airport in five years’ time. But there are hidden suggestions too: the airport carries an association of being high-level, and fits in with the course’s aim of empowering the students with the tools they need to effect change. Once the course is over, they will disperse to airports across the world and put these ideas into practice in their home countries.

The phrases ‘certainty is an illusion’ and ‘think probabilistically about the world’, both introduced in the first class, are the first two examples of high-level concepts which Dan calls airport ideas.

Availability bias prevents us from setting our prior beliefs appropriately, whereas confirmation bias stops us from updating them for new information.