Happiness and productivity are two sides of the same coin. We’re at our best when our work creates value for others and we get rewarded. This is why socialism, communism, and any kind of unearned welfare inevitably lead to misery and the end of civilization.

In a world of self-improving software, nothing feels more dated than "click here to update the app". This will become more obvious as the rate of software production continues to increase. The only viable software delivery model is the web's: "Hot app replacement".

We will see within our lifetime the rise of young supergeniuses that far surpass previous generations in both intellect and demonstrable accomplishments.

With AI, anyone can self-teach any concept, science, discipline. Agents can implement and give the individual the power of a large team. It’s gonna be fun to watch the dramatic acceleration of human potential.

Coding will reach full autonomy, which I define as an extremely low rate of disengagement to human experts, in narrower domains first. Much like Waymo has crushed the robotaxi usecase, there’s similar alpha in the optimization of programming languages, frameworks and tasks

Prediction: software development will closely resemble the evolution of self-driving cars.

- Considered for many years intractable, now run of the mill for a large subset of rides (robotaxi), all mobility within sight.

- The key metric to watch is disengagement rate (i.e.: how frequently the human operator needs total take over coding :: driving).

- Occasional human takeover and steering still needed (remote takeover) to get the program “unstuck” or figure out dilemmas.

- Success is predicated on the successful interoperability with the existing environment and tools (existing programming languages, runtimes, frameworks :: streets, signs, pedestrians), rather than resetting the landscape.

The easiest way to tell you have product-market-fit is unsolicited acts of affection from users. People reach out of the blue, in private and in public, to tell you how much they love the thing you created. This is incidentally the most rewarding part of it all.