It’s so easy to commit your future self to things your current self wouldn’t want to do,” he says. “We call this a ‘planning fallacy.

When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives too easily fall victim to the planning fallacy. In its grip, they make decisions based on delusional optimism rather than on a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities. They overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. They spin scenarios of success while overlooking the potential for mistakes and miscalculations. As a result, they pursue initiatives that are unlikely to come in on budget or on time or to deliver the expected returns — or even to be completed. In this view, people often (but not always) take on risky projects because they are overly optimistic about the odds they face. I will return to this idea several times in this book — it probably contributes to an explanation of why people litigate, why they start wars, and why they open small businesses.

We focus on our goal, anchor on our plan, and neglect relevant base rates, exposing ourselves to the planning fallacy. We focus on what we want to do and can do, neglecting the plans and skills of others. Both in explaining the past and in predicting the future, we focus on the causal role of skill and neglect the role of luck. We are therefore prone to an illusion of control. We focus on what we know and neglect what we do not know, which makes us overly confident in our beliefs.

If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!

If you FAIL to PLAN. You PLAN to FAIL.

Failing to plan is planning to fail. Plan Each Day, Each Week, Each Semester. You can always change your plan, but only once you have one!

What goes wrong [in long-range planning] is that sensible anticipation gets converted into foolish numbers: and their validity always hinges on large loose assumptions.

Planning is one of the many catchwords whose present popularity is roughly proportionate to the obscurity of its definition.

planning is arrogant and inflexible. Instead you should try things out,

The real problem isn't planning. It's that we take our plans to be something they aren't. What we forget, or can't bear to confront, is that, in the words of the American meditation teacher Joseph Goldstein, "a plan is just a thought." We treat our plans as though they are a lasso, thrown from the present around the future, in order to bring it under our command. But all a plan is — all it could ever possibly be — is a present-moment statement of intent. It's an expression of your current thoughts about how you'd ideally like to deploy your modest influence over the future. The future, of course, is under no obligation to comply.

Adventure is just bad planning.

the mistake of spending virtually no time on designing because they are preoccupied with execution. Remember: Designing precedes doing!

The 6 Biggest Mistakes of Business Planning 1. Not having a plan 2. Not examining last year’s plan 3. Not having an enemy that acts like rocket fuel 4. Failing to integrate logic and emotion in the current plan 5. Not making it a living document — don’t use it to manage 6. Not sharing it (so no one could hold you accountable)

La planificación a largo plazo en un negocio es una fantasía, a no ser que tú seas una pitonisa