Maximising enjoyment All students want to enjoy their classes. This simple truth means that teachers who can make learning fun will, other things equal, be more successful. If the only way students can enjoy themselves is to ignore the class and play on their phones, then student enjoyment is a headwind that slows the boat’s progress. By making learning fun, teachers can adjust the sails to take advantage of the wind and speed the boat up. The progress it makes may not be directly towards our destination, but we can use the sails nonetheless to pick up speed and get closer to it than we would otherwise have done.

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Recognising competing purposes Although few would have much trouble identifying ‘maximising learning’ as the purpose of the class, there may be several competing purposes in play, all of which are invisible. For students, maximising enjoyment, minimising effort, maximising test scores, maximising learning about something else, and making friends are all likely to be found across the classroom. For the teacher, we can add to that list maximising evaluation scores, which may be closer linked to student satisfaction than to student learning.

Dan’s goal, taken from his mentor Richard Zeckhauser, is to get students to think probabilistically about the world. This means engaging with the challenge of understanding and accepting what 29% means in the context of a Trump victory, and fighting the brain’s natural inclination to see things in binary terms.

An American student, well-versed in U.S. politics, puts his hand up. He says he had been following Nate Silver’s ‘Five Thirty-Eight’ website, which had said that Trump only had about a 30% chance of winning the election.

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I guess… it was just a shocking event. We’re not used to someone like him being President.” Here, the student reveals an availability bias in which we expect future outcomes to look like what has gone before.

The failure here is an example of a common flaw in our approach to adaptive challenges: we try to solve them with technical solutions. Terrified of the unknown, we seek to replace problems we have no idea how to address with those we know how to solve. This is a form of ‘work avoidance’, a term coined by Heifetz[x]. If you have ever procrastinated by spending your whole afternoon making a brightly-coloured work plan, and then congratulated yourself on being productive, then you will be familiar with the concept. By focusing on what they know they can measure – the extent to which a lesson went as planned – some professors may avoid the harder work of trying to gauge the learning of their students.

The brain has conflicting goals: to provide you with information, and to reduce your anxiety about the worrying outcome. If you wanted Clinton to win in 2016, your brain achieved both goals by accepting the 30% figure but telling you it would not happen.

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He asks the 80 students to respond based on their ‘gut feeling’. Again, students are given five options, ranging from ‘less than 1%’ to ‘above 40%’. About half of them believe the true answer is less than 5%, of which plenty go for the ‘less than 1%’ option. Only 1 in 6 get it right, picking the highest option: it turns out that the true figure is 41%. He invites those people – 13 in total – to stand up.

Dan’s use of two-stage exams kills two birds with one stone. Firstly, he maximises learning by ensuring that the exam itself is a learning experience. Second, in doing so, he makes clear that the grade is less important than the learning. Two-stage exams have not yet ‘taken off’ around the world, and grades remain the key outcome of most exams for most students. Dan, though, has taken advantage of his position in a graduate university environment to push the idea forward.